Well begun is half done

Duties at National Semiconductor preclude my further posting to this blog as I will be focused on advocating their innovative and very important new product line, Solar Magic.
I can say here that the essence of what we will be pursuing with Solar Magic is the extension of intelligence to the panel level, enabling better energy harvest and better monitoring/management of PV assets.
Time will tell if National Semiconductor succeeds in this space, but its contribution definitely heralds a new era when PV power systems are becoming a serious element of our future power infrastructure.
Thanks to all for your support and I'll be seeing you!

Daybreak

Don't blink.
This is it.

By then end of this year, solar is going to cross into the mainstream.

This has all happened before. Remember a time when desks were bereft of computers, and when magazines carried no computer ads? Now the sight of a personal computer is more ubiquitous than the Coca-Cola logo.

This is your last chance to view the world as it once was, pre-solar. Go and get the current Architectural Digest and note that it doesn't yet burst with solar ads. Take a walk around your neighborhood and see that there are no rooftop solar panels, just like there were once no dish antennas. Watch an evening of television and record for posterity that not a single solar ad rolls past. (Although in late night basic cable, it may already be too late.)

Sharp Solar is now launching a rich television campaign that will likely signal others to follow.





But that's not all. Between now and the end of the year, we'll see both Presidential candidates climbing over each other to claim leadership in this most promising and least controversial of all solutions to our biggest problem of energy. Crowds of people inside and outside of both of the upcoming conventions will be wearing "Solar Voter"(tm) tee shirts. By the end of the year, major new Thin Film (a-Si, CIGS) companies will be launching into production. The economic recovery will be led in the media by newly minted solar giants.
The secret of solar will be revealed for all time.


Someday you'll tell your grandkids about was like, before solar.

"Wait a minute. I don't get it. You say that when the Sun was shining the hottest, you actually turned the air conditioning down?"

Do laugh right along with them. It is rather silly.

We have a dream

Its an easy hobby of many to look back with nostalgia (and perhaps even shame) at the breathtaking investments made in civil infrastructure by our predecessors.

It seems that today we can barely muster the communal will to repair potholes except during a brief window before every election. Even then, there might be protests that fixing potholes only encourages more cars...

Its hard to imagine how our Giant Ancestors managed the feats of civil infrastructure that we have inherited.

Here's one theory:
They did it because it was fun.

The fact is that these endeavours were embraced because of their scope and majesty. Their era judged these projects without hesitation. To be a part of the new generation was energizing enough to overcome the barriers that our modern eyes find so intimidating.

Back then, any major new project was welcomed with parades and every community leader was on the same side: progress, growth, technology, prosperity.

For a few decades now, we've been cautiously preoccupied with avoiding, fearing and tidying up of unanticipated consequences. It is wise to be cautious, but it has become an entrenched habit for us. Today, any new project is first opposed by whoever's backyard it is in. Power lines obstruct views. But then others join in opposition. More power lines means more houses, means more cars, means more traffic and more pollution. We have come to equate "progressive" with "anti-growth".

But the assumptions underlying that attitude are about to change. We've gone back to the drawing board for the next generation of infrastructure and at last we have the right solutions in hand. The clean efficient foundation of Solar and Wind power are the roots from which an exciting new era of infrastructure build will now bloom.

The reflex to oppose will still twitch, but when those proposed power lines are the first link in the new national smart grid, carrying power from solar farms with greater efficiency than ever before and that power will drive electric cars, public transportation ...the muscle that was once opposition will flex with pride and enthusiasm.

We've caught our breath for a generation, taken inventory and sharpened our pencils.

Now its time to dust off the old dreams, and soar again.

April 25, 1954

Ray Kurzweil famously advocates that we are racing towards grid parity for solar electricity at an accelerating pace. It is a race indeed. Hardly a day goes by without some major development or another (or another) pushing us one step closer to that goal.

There are many steps on the path behind us that place in this enviable position. But for now, let us turn our attention to a single special moment in that history.

On April 25, 1954, Bell Labs introduced the first commercial solar cell, or Solar Battery, as they then called it.

It was a novelty at first, an invention without an application. Its a misconception today that solar has been uneconomical and falls just short of practicality. In fact, the history of photovoltaics is an unbroken chain of game changing killer applications.

The first satellites were battery powered, and lasted only a few weeks. When solar cells were used instead of batteries, lifetime was extended to several years. Perhaps more than any other single technology, photovoltaic solar cells made satellites practical.

Next, remote research facilities and laboratories that are not possible if they depend on battery or diesel generators become practical and economic when endowed with solar power. Similarly, solar powered oceanic and air traffic navigation and communication aids have spread safety and security to the remotest parts of the Earth.

Now photovoltaic power is poised to cap this string of marketplace victories and take its place as the central source or our power grid. We will see this drama unfold over the next decade.

So before we take that final lap in Kurzweil singular solar race, enjoy this peek back at the solar cells humble beginnings and wish that its inventors could have dreamt of its impact on our world.

You ain't seen nothin' yet!

Breaking News

(April 1, 2008, Santa Clara, California)
In a stunning revelation, today Santa Clara based solar technology company GrumbNeeth announced a major breakthrough in solar energy conversion. The company unveiled a device called S-Gars based on nano organic materials which it claims converts the full 100% of sunlight's energy content into usable energy and stores it on site.

Details of the core technology in S-Gars were not disclosed other than that advanced nanotechnology is extensively used. "The device actually self assembles at a molecular level. There is no clean room or need for an exotic manufacturing environment. We could manufacture S-Gars outdoors in the open air." revealed GrumbNeeth CEO. "We believe that in volume production, we can manufacture S-Gars for less than a penny per Watt." Currently, one watt of power by standard photovoltaic technology is more than 300 times that cost.

An energy analyst commented, "Most companies are happy to tout efficiencies of 30% as an achievement. Nobody has even been dreaming of this kind of efficiency. If this claim bears out, the GrumbNeeth's technology would undercut the cost of wholesale Coal and Nuclear power by orders of magnitude."

Asked about the environmental impact of the manufacturing process, GrumbNeeth's CTO explained, "Not only is the manufacturing process extremely low in energy and material consumption, but when in operation, it actually removes carbon dioxide from the air."

But some challenges in production were suggested, "The manufacturing process is actually quite slow, taking six to eight weeks per batch, but we believe the batch size can be made extremely large." the Vice President of manufacturing explained. "Best of all, the self assembling nanotechnology of S-Gars allows it to be manufactured almost anywhere in the world using local materials."

The football field sized, 2MW prototype system presented converts enough energy to power a thousand homes. GrumbNeeth's Marketing Director envisions a future where "Every house in every neighborhood will be characterized by a small array of S-Gars in the front and back yard. This is going to change everything.

A Modest Proposal

In these early days of the nascent solar industry, there is much discussion of how policy can best support and encourage (aka: pay for) the nurturing of this promising technology to maturity.

Most homeownners today look at solar and struggle with the combination of newness and complex financial payback, delaying what would be an otherwise fruitful investment in home improvement.

There are three common approaches proposed to alleviate this dilemma:

• Regulation: Simply require all new homes to include solar in their power system.
• Subsidy: Arrange for Local, State and Federal governments to offer tax credits, rebates or guaranteed subsidized financing for solar installations.
• Indirect Subsidy: Install cost penalties on existing energy sources by adding carbon taxes to fossil fuels.

While all of the above proposals are attractive and popular, they are tainted with inefficiencies.
Regulation agencies can never comprehend the nuances of each specific case. Inevitably, solar installations will be forced in locations where they are not practical, and government money will be spent persuading installations in conditions where it is so favorable that it would have been done anyway. Subsidies and indirect subsidies are common and inevitable, but often lead to absurdities of inefficiency.

There is another option that has gone overlooked: deregulation.

Our energy policy over the last few decades has evolved to an extent that any new home is required by law to include conservation elements above what a home owner would install on their own. Elements such a low energy lighting, special heating and robust insulation add to the cost of a new home. If the cost of compliance for a home approaches $30,000, this is approximately the cost of a typical home solar system.

The rationale for these regulations is twofold: First, reducing energy consumption means less fossil fuel pollution. Second, reducing energy consumption reduces pressure to build enormously capital-intensive energy capacity allowing the installed capacity to remain sufficient over a longer period of time.

If a home is outfitted with solar however, both of the above aspirations are satisfied. By simply waiving conservation inspired building codes for homes equipped with solar, financing for the solar installation becomes available without government intervention.

Taking this thinking further leads to some interesting effects. A home that draws its power from clean solar should be liberated from conservation constraints across the board. Homeowner habits that have become reflexive to us in a conservation minded world are no longer necessary. Air conditioning can be turned up freely on hot summer days (when the solar array is at its most productive), rooms can be flooded with light, leisure giving electric power can be used generously in the smug knowledge that it is abundant and non-polluting.

Picture such a house: free flowing clean solar electricity heating, cooling and driving lifestyle appliances to the homeowners unbridled delight.

Now picture beside it today's energy conservation compliant home: nearly windowless, confined, lit sparingly by blue-green fluorescent bulbs -and for all its effort still with an enormous carbon footprint compared to our solar home.

They cost the same to build.
Which one will be worth more?

Perhaps the best way to encourage solar adoption is to simply get out of the way.